New Poll Shows Biden Leads Trump Among Asian American Voters, But Support Drops Eight Points Compared to 2020
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Survey of Asian American registered voters — a rapidly growing electorate, which played a decisive role in the 2020 election — conducted by APIAVote, AAPI Data, Asian Americans Advancing Justice - AAJC, and AARP
46% likely to vote for Biden, down 8 percentage points since 2020, while 31% likely to vote for Trump, gaining 1 point since 2020
90% intend to vote in November, despite 42% not having been contacted by either the Democratic or Republican parties or candidates
Washington, DC – July 10, 2024 – Today, Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIAVote), AAPI Data, Asian Americans Advancing Justice - AAJC, and AARP released the findings from their bi-annual Asian American Voter Survey (AAVS), the longest-running survey of Asian American voters. Since 2012, this comprehensive, multilingual survey has revealed what issues matter most to this fastest growing part of the electorate and how those issues are consequential to their voting decisions.
Full results from the survey, which were presented during a virtual press briefing today, are available here. Among the topline findings include:
- 46% say they’ll likely vote for Biden (down from 54% in 2020), 31% say they’ll likely vote for Trump (compared to 30% in 2020), and 5% say they’ll likely vote for someone else (up from 1% in 2020). The remainder are undecided or refuse to answer how they will vote.
- 62% view Trump unfavorably including 43% who view him very unfavorably. Meanwhile, 44% view Biden unfavorably, including 23% very unfavorably.
- 42% identify as Democrats (compared to 44% in 2020), 22% identify as Republicans (compared to 23% in 2020), and 31% identify as Independent (compared to 25% in 2020).
- Asian American voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans for U.S. House (51% vs. 30%) and Senate (50% vs. 30%).
- 90% of Asian American voters say they plan to vote for President, Congress and other offices this November. A further 68% say that they are absolutely certain they will vote.
- 42% of Asian American voters say they have not been contacted by either the Democratic or Republican parties or candidates, including 50% who say they have not been contacted by the Democratic Party and 57% who say they have not been contacted by the Republican Party.
- Among the most important issues for Asian American voters include jobs and the economy (86% say “extremely” or “very” important), inflation (85%), healthcare (85%), crime (80%), education (80%), Social Security and Medicare (79%), cost of housing (78%), national security (77%), gun control (73%), and immigration (71%).
- Over a two-thirds majority (68%) of Asian American voters reported worrying about hate crimes, harassment, and discrimination “sometimes” (38%), “somewhat often” (17%), or “very often” (13%).
Asian Americans have been a rapidly growing group of eligible voters in the U.S. over the past two decades, growing by 15% in the last four years alone and turning out in record numbers in every federal election since 2016. In 2020, a surge in Asian American voters – especially those voting for the very first time – in battleground states was crucial to Biden’s victory.
“What these results show is that despite Asian American voters’ growing influence and decisive role in recent elections, they are largely still being ignored by campaigns and political parties,” said Christine Chen, Co-Founder and Executive Director of APIAVote. “And while there’s little evidence of a broad political realignment of Asian American voters, recent elections have shown that their political identities are more tenuous than their voting habits imply, and that when candidates make concerted efforts to engage them, Asian American voters are persuadable.”
The release of the AAVS comes just before APIAVote’s Presidential Town Hall, being held in Philadelphia on July 13. The crucial national forum invites presidential candidates to engage directly with the AAPI community. Since 2008, APIAVote provides a dedicated space for candidates to engage AAPI community members, leaders, and organizers face-to-face. The town hall offers one of the rare opportunities for this impactful growing electorate to hear directly from those vying for the nation’s highest office.
“Asian Americans are rapidly diversifying the American electorate, and it is critical for us to update our understanding of what motivates them and informs their voting choices,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, Executive Director of AAPI Data. “We see ongoing evidence of dynamism within the Asian American electorate, including on matters pertaining to presidential vote choice and party preferences on key issues ranging from inflation to health care and immigration.”
“Every iteration of the AAVS has provided a critical glimpse into the growing influence of the Asian American electorate, and this year is no different,” said John C. Yang, President and Executive Director of Asian Americans Advancing Justice – AAJC. “Politicians too often overlook us in the civic engagement process, where in many cases, our right to vote is suppressed, compromised, or questioned. What this survey tells us is that politicians need to reach out to the Asian American community, and accurately understand and address our issues if they want to win our votes.”
“Americans ages 50 and older, including Asian American and Pacific Islanders, are the nation’s most powerful voters,” said Daphne Kwok, AARP Vice President, Office of Diversity, Equity & Inclusion, Asian American & Pacific Audience Strategy. “As the group that will be the deciders of this election, candidates must address the issues that matter to older adults and their families, including protecting Social Security and Medicare and supporting family caregivers.”
The survey of 2,479 Asian American voters was conducted using mixed modes, self-administered responses via an online panel and telephone interviews of respondents selected from a classified list of Asian American voters for the six largest ethnic groups (Chinese, Indian, Filipino, Korean, Vietnamese, and Japanese). For the phone portion, 22 interviews were completed by landline, while 1,235 were completed via cell phone for a total of 1,257 surveys completed by phone. Another 1,222 surveys were completed using an online panel which was drawn from 6 panel partners targeting Asian American panelists. Respondents qualified for the survey if they indicated on a screener questionnaire that they were currently registered to vote at their present address.
The data were weighted using a post-stratification raking method based on: 1) state of residence by Asian ethnicity, 2) key demographic factors (age, education, gender, and nativity) by Asian ethnicity, and 3) the party distribution of registered voters by Asian ethnicity. The margins of error of our weighted estimates incorporating both the design effect of the study and the post-stratification weights are 2.7% for the overall sample.
More details about the survey’s methodology can be found in the published report (page 99).
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